Anyone who reads my blog assumes that I have a bias for multifamily investments.  I just think they’re the safest niche of commercial real estate…so to assume that would be correct.  But my greatest bias is toward taking considered ACTION.  So many investors miss the best part of the market by aiming, aiming and aiming some more before pulling the trigger.

My Dad taught me a valuable lesson when I was a youngster.  He asked me if I had mowed the lawn as asked.  I replied: “No…but I’m thinking about it.”  He said:  “Well now…thinking about something is a step, but not a very big one.  And now we’re talking about it…an even further step, but still not very big.  To sink a long putt you have to take your time, read the green and envision your success.  But at some point you have to actually strike the ball.  Planning improves success, but without action planning is useless.”  I went out and mowed the lawn right away.   I’d like to tell you that I learned the lesson my father offered me immediately, but like many 14 year old kids it took the message a few weeks to sink in.  Of course, now the message is clear: ” Words and thoughts take a back seat to action.”

“The best time to make an offer on a building is while the firemen are  still moping up.  After its rebuilt the price will go way up.  The multifamily market has taken some hits over the past few years…but I feel now is a good to start a portfiolio…or to expand one. Take action now…call Rick Bean at 503.577.1034 or email me at rick@rosecitycre.com.

Years ago a bright and energetic fellow as running around Eugene with a waffle iron in his trunk trying to get folks interested in a new type of shoe that was designed for running.  The waffle pattern was purported to offer superior traction and performance.  Someone I love and admire was made the same offer given to so many around town:  “Give me $20,000 and I’ll sell you 10% of my new shoe company.”  Today that slice of Nike is worth considerably more than the original offering price.  Many thought about it, few acted.

My question to those that are thinking, talking, and considering investing in apartments is this:  “Will your story 10 years from now be that you thought about investing in multifamily?”  To paraphrase my father’s wisdom: “You are in no danger of making a profit on the good investments you don’t make.”

Take action! Contact Rick M. Bean at Rose City Commercial Real Estate today: 503.577.1034 or rick@rosecitycre.com.

 

Investors continue to prefer U.S. apartment buildings over most commercial properties, even commercial office space, as total multifamily sales volume jumped nearly 80% in the second quarter over the same perioud last year.

Although still just a fraction of its mid-2007 peak, the nearly $15 billion in sales in the quarter brought total investment for the first half of 2011 to $24.5 billion, according to CoStar Group data.

The average per-unit price of apartment properties reached $88,500 in the quarter — the highest since the third quarter of 2008, said CoStar Global Strategist Michael Cohen during CoStar’s Mid-Year 2011 Multifamily Review & Forecast.

FREE:  Rose City Commercial Real Estate will give you a no cost opportunity to develop a long term investment plan customized to your goals.  Portland multi-family investments are poised for solid gains.  Contact Rick Bean now at: 503.577.1034 or rick@rosecitycre.com

Meanwhile, strong renter demand continues to push down apartment vacancy rates and nudge up rents. With capitalization rates for existing properties seeing strong compression in some high-flying markets, larger multifamily developers have responded by starting to ramp up their development pipelines with new projects.

Top coastal markets continued to dominate sales volume in the first half of 2011, including Washington, D.C with $2.6 billion; Los Angeles, $2.3 billion and the San Francisco Bay Area, $2.1 billion. In Atlanta, where investors have sought a large number of distressed properties, sales totaled $1.3 billion in the first six months. In Phoenix, a housing bust market where fundamentals have picked up markedly, also logged $1.3 billion in sales.

For the second quarter, the top five transaction markets were New York City, with $1.35 billion; D.C., $1.3 billion, Los Angeles, $1.21 billion; Atlanta, $764 million and San Francisco, $689 million. Those markets accounted for about 36% of all sales volume nationwide during the quarter, with CBDs and well-located submarkets seeing the lion’s share of deals.

Institutional investors were by far the most active net apartment buyers, with net purchases of $1.6 billion on total acquisitions of $3.9 billion. REITs, private equity and owner/users were also net buyers, while REITs were also net sellers in a few markets such as Portland, Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area and Atlanta.

Average apartment capitalization rates continued to fall in the second quarter to slightly below 7%, while weighed average cap rates, driven by the large high-priced transactions in prime markets, declined to 5.7%. However, cap rates for mid-size value-add and opportunity deals are also declining. Cap rates on smaller transactions remain in a holding pattern.

Top deals in the second quarter included the acquisition of a 25% interest in a 20-property foreclosed portfolio by The Related Cos. from Fannie Mae for about $300 million; TIAA-CREF’s acquisition of The Corner at 200 West 72nd St. in New York from Gotham Organization and Phillip International for $209 million, or 1.07 million per unit; and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s $84 million acquisition of a 44% interest in a 654-unit property in Seattle from New Tower Trust Co.

Supply Tight Now, But Construction Starts Are Rising

Job growth has been the traditional source of apartment demand in the past. But in this cycle much of the demand is coming from many former homeowners who have become renters since the beginning of the housing crisis. That trend, combined with a growing number of young people forming households, is driving competition for a diminishing supply of apartments, powering the improvement in apartment fundamental since 2009.

CoStar forecasts total supply additions of just 30,000 units in the 54 largest markets in 2011, just one-third of the pre-recession average of apartment delivered between 2003 and 2008. However, multifamily construction starts are starting to tick up, with more than 70,000 starts in the first two quarters of 2011, suggesting a rise in completions in coming years, particularly in the 2013-2015 time period, Cohen said.

“It’s worth paying attention to the supply front,” Cohen said. “This is where I think the apartment market could be a victim of its own success. While we are forecasting below-average annual supply growth, we need to monitor the permitting data and the starts data.”

Vacancies, Rent Concessions Continue to Decline

Renter demand, while not at the outsized levels of 2010, remains very strong across the board, led by the fast-growing southern metros and the rebound in Detroit. Demand growth equaled about 66,000 units in the first half compared to the extraordinary increase of 105,000 units in the first six months of 2010, which was the strongest since 2005. However, the 45,000 units absorbed in the most recent quarter was more than the absorption of the two previous quarters combined, Cohen noted.

 

 

It is a bullish sentiment that gathered steam through 2010. With few projects initiated in 2009, there will be a shortage in the supply of rental apartments this year. Combined with a stabilizing economy, continuing uncertainty in single-family home prices, and echo boomers boosting demand, it will be heaven for multifamily in 2011.

Expect rents to grow at rates unseen since the early 1990s, when the sector experienced a similar pullback in construction. However, will these good times be sustainable? Or will heaven crash back down to earth as soon as 2012?

There is compelling evidence that effective rents will indeed post strong growth in 2011. Despite moribund economic growth in 2010, apartment vacancies fell sharply, ending the year at 6.6% after starting from a record-high base of 8%. Concessions that included subsidies for utilities and broker commissions as well as months of free rent were withdrawn swiftly.

This article is reprinted from National Real Estate Investor.  Their articles are insightful, timely and reliable. 

The time to buy is when the market is heading up.  All the signs are there suggesting the best multifamily climate in years.  To learn more about investing in Portland’s multifamily market, call Rick Bean at 503.577.1034 or contact him at rick@rosecitycre.com.

National effective rents grew by 2.3% in 2010, a healthy rebound given the record 2.9% decline in 2009. And this was when about 94,000 apartment units came on line and jobs were growing at a disappointing rate.

A rising tide …

Inventory growth will contract significantly in 2011. Reis projections add up to only about 51,000 units coming on line in 79 major metro markets. This is less than half of the

via Heaven for Multifamily in 2011, Closer to Earth in 2012.

I’ve to talked to property owners, brokers, title companies…but nobody seems to know of any properties for sale that fully meet the needs of one of my clients.  He has no 1031 or 1033 Exchange deadlines to worry about…but he does have cash sufficient to purchase 60 to 80 quality units in the Portland area.  Wilsonville doesn’t hit his sweet spot…nor does Gresham or much East of I-205.  Vancouver is possible…West and Southwest PDX would be winners. 

He’s willing to pay a fair price for quality. 

He takes real pride in ownership:  fixer-uppers are not his thing.   This is a knowledgeable investor who puts little stock into overly optimistic proformas.  The challenge for me is to deliver value to him he can’t find elsewhere by himself.  Off-market deals, pocket listings are more likely to get consideration than something on Loop-Net or Read more

 

 Associated Estates is a self administered, self managed Real Estate Investment Trust that owns 13,192 multifamily units in 52 communities in 9 states.  Their CEO, Jefferey Friedman, was interviewed by Keat Foong, the Executive Editor of Multi Housing News. 

New Renters Will Outstrip the Supply of Apartments

The number of new renters will exceed the supply of apartments by as much as two times, according to the president and CEO of Associated Estates Realty Corp. Jeffrey Friedman.

In an interview with MHN, Friedman argued that demographic patterns in this and next decade dictate that there will be strong demand for apartments that will outstrip supply. 

Friedman explained that the homeownership rate is about 65 percent currently, and that the total number of households in the US is about 120 million. “If 35 percent of the population rents, we are talking about 40 million households that are renters,” he said.

According to the census bureau, there will be 15 million new households over the next 10 years, translating to about 1.5 million new households per year. If only 30 percent of these households rent, says Friedman, this will mean there will be 450,000 new rental households per year in the next 10 years. 

However, apartment starts have been hovering at around only 200,000 units from the supply standpoint. “We know there is no overbuilding,” says Friedman. If this pattern holds, “In fact, there will be half as many new apartments built as new renters coming into the market,” he says. Read more